Saturday, February 21, 2009

Gold::Questions & Answers!!

Courtsey:Larry Edelson

It's time again for me to answer some questions my readers have. Often, this kind of forum can cut right to the chase, as I directly respond to the most popular questions I'm hearing. So let's get right to them ...

Bob writes in: "Gold's broken above your key resistance level of $929. How much higher can it go, and how fast do you expect it to go up?"

You'll see some backing and filling of the support areas just under $929, meaning you shouldn't be surprised if there's yet another pullback. But gold's next leg up should easily exceed the prior record high of $1,034 an ounce.

Once that is accomplished, expect another pullback, then a move up to at least $1,250.
Longer-term, over the next three years, I expect to see gold reach at least $2,200 an ounce, and possibly much higher. Select gold mining shares and mutual funds should perform even better.

Neal asks me: "Do you still think the Dow bottomed last November?"
Darn good question! Yes, and no. In nominal figures, the November 20 low is still holding. While in real terms, a slight new low has formed. On the other hand, many indicators I watch — such as the advance/decline line, also indicate the November 20 low was THE low.

However, there's clearly too much nervousness and volatility in the markets right now to say with any certainty. I do expect the following though: One more selling panic in the Dow that could bring it down to the 7,000 level. Then, a quick turnaround followed by a multi-month rally that could easily take the Dow back over 10,000.

So unless you are a very short-term trader, or have guidance in that area, I would NOT be playing the short side of the stock market here, either for speculation, or as hedges.

Rona writes in: "Larry, the dollar seems to be defying gravity. What gives?"

On the surface, it looks like the dollar is strong. But stand back for a minute and consider the following: The British pound and the euro are plummeting. So is the Russian ruble and all Eastern European currencies.

Add in all the dollar-denominated debts that are being liquidated and paid off, and the dollar should actually be soaring. But it's not. The Dollar Index is a mere 16% above its record low set last year.

On a relative performance basis, that's terrible upside action in the buck. And it's a sign of what's to come. There's not one shred of doubt in my mind that the dollar is headed much, much lower.

Either forced lower by the marketplace, which is fully aware of the trillions in fiat money that must be printed, or by authorities who have the legal means to change and depreciate the value of the dollar to alleviate the deflationary impact of the mountain of debt out there.

Note: Some say Europe is in much worse shape than the U.S., and in some respects, that's true. But Europe is NOT expected to save the world, the U.S. is.

Couple that with the fact that most of the world lays the blame for this crisis on the U.S. and you have a geo-political situation that squarely puts U.S. authorities on the hot seat, under pressure to devalue.

Moreover, since a global economic recovery depends on a recovery in the U.S. — it actually behooves U.S. authorities to devalue the buck. By doing so, they can ...

1. Stimulate U.S. exports
2. Re-ignite inflation and rising prices, both domestically and internationally.

This is exactly what President Roosevelt did in 1933 when he confiscated gold, raised its price, and devalued the dollar. Almost immediately, the economy began to recover, employment picked up, and both prices and wages started rising.

David asks me: "I saw a report you wrote last month indicating that the price of oil had bottomed. But since then, oil has fallen further. You were wrong. You're probably wrong on deflation too. No?"

My cycle work relates only to timing and not price. When I say something or show a chart that indicates cycles are bottoming, it merely indicates that selling pressure is slowing. And conversely, if I say cycles are topping, it means we're entering a time period where buying pressure should be exhausting itself.

Cycle analysis can be very helpful as a technical tool, but only if one keeps in mind that it relates to timing, and not actual price. Other indicators should be used to determine whether the price action is consistent with the cycle models.

In the case of oil, although its price has fallen further, we remain in a time window where we should see downside pressure reduced, and an eventual turn back up.

Barbara wants to know: "Are there any life insurance policies or annuities that allow you to hold gold?"

None that I know of in this country; however, there are some excellent programs based in Switzerland. You might consider looking at what the SafeWealth Group offers.

Dick asks: "Larry, what are your latest thoughts on Asia?"

I'm in Asia now. There are pockets in Asia that are certainly slowing. But for the record, I will say this: The slowdown occurring in Asia is nowhere near as bad as the western press is leading you to believe.

Here in Bangkok, construction of new office and condo buildings continues almost unabated. Shoppers pack the malls at Paragon and Emporium. In Singapore, where I was last month, there are as many construction cranes peppered around the city as ever. And the world famous Orchard shopping district is practically elbow to elbow with people.

In my opinion, western analysts are most notably wrong about China. Yes, thousands of factories have shut down in China. But those western analysts totally underestimate the Chinese and their ability to handle hard times, as well as their extremely proud heritage and nationalism.

Not to mention the fact that the Chinese banking system is now the strongest in the world ... and that Beijing now has almost $2 trillion in cash on hand and hardly any foreign debt.

There is no doubt in my mind that China is going to turn back to the upside, even before the U.S.

Richard writes in: "Other analysts I read tell me the U.S. doesn't have any gold reserves; that Washington secretly dumped them decades ago and that Fort Knox is empty. Is there any truth to those statements?"
The U.S. Treasury has 261 million ounces of gold worth about $245.3 billion at gold's current price.

A large part of it is still held at Fort Knox, but not exclusively, as in the past. Today most of the gold is actually stored 50 feet below sea level in a subterranean vault under the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at 33 Liberty Street, Manhattan.
Sally's question: "You recommend up to 25% of investable funds be allocated to various gold investments, with the balance, 75%, in cash. But why so much cash when it's only going to lose purchasing power over time?"
Excellent question Sally. I do so for one main reason: Everyone needs liquid cash in this environment. And over the short-term, cash — in the form of Treasury bills with a maturity of less than one year, or a Treasury-only money market fund — is the best way to go.
Later, when I see the real collapse in the dollar beginning, I will likely recommend moving out of cash and into select investments that will benefit from the next big leg down in the dollar.
Steve wants to know: "You've talked about the central bankers of the world changing the value of money. But how could they do that?"
They've done it numerous times before. They did it in 1933, in 1944, in 1971, and in 1995 at the Plaza Accord. Governments and central banks have the ability to tinker with exchange rates between currencies and the value of gold to create new valuations for paper money. They can do it by manipulating the markets, or, in extreme cases, by emergency rule.
It is likely to happen again, and sooner rather than later. If authorities amongst the G-20 do not see signs of a turnaround soon, I believe they will start looking further into a new monetary system that will re-align the world's debtors, mainly the U.S., and the creditors. I expect this to be an ongoing effort and a major topic of the upcoming G-20 meeting on April 20.
I further suspect that a few years from now the world will largely be comprised of three currencies: The dollar, the euro, and a new regional currency for all of Asia

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Gold:: Is it an Investment Oppurtunity now?

Courtsey:Dr.Krishna
I am writing this article on Gold after receiving many enquiries from investors on "Gold as new investment opportunity". Gold is now trading around Rs 15,650 per 10 gram. Gold now suddenly caught the attention of herd investors when value investors are selling their holdings. Another classic Herd Mentality (Reliance Power IPO) is now on the cards.

Gold was traded below Rs 12,000 levels per 10 gram for more than 1 year but no investor asked me about gold as investment. Now Gold is trading in the above 15,500 zone but people are now asking me about investment opportunities in the gold and my opinion on the target of 30,000 levels. This incident once again illustrated the "Herd mentality" of investors. These people will never learn in their life about the "value of investment" and "Margin of safety".

Not many people talked about Sensex and stock markets when it was traded below 14,000 till September, 2007. When Sensex crossed the levels of 18,000, many people started investments in the stocks on the hopes 30,000 Sensex levels. Sensex deceived investors by reaching 21,000 levels and everyone knew the rest of the story.

History of Gold as investment:

Gold is traditionally treated as safe investment in the difficult times. Big investors will treat this as "Safe Hedge" when equities are not yielding good returns and when dollar is weak. Same thing happened in 2003 when equities are in down turn for 3 consecutive years. These people will sell their hedge holdings like Gold and FMCG stocks once equities make bounce back. But Gold is safe hedge against inflation.

History of gold prices (in rupees):

1930: 180 per 10 gram
1940: 360 per 10 gram
1950: 1000 per 10 gram
1960: 1110 per 10 gram

1970: 1840 per 10 gram
1975: 5,400 per 10 gram

2000: 3,000 per 10 gram
2006: 5,400 per 10 gram

2009: 15,700 per 10 gram.

Gold surprisingly gave 300% returns from 1970 to 1975 when world suffered worst ever recession after great Depression. Will the history repeat? That is the reason behind current "Mad Gold rush". But if you invested in the Gold in 1975, your investment gave negative returns for the next 25 years.

Remember 2 things:

1. Gold generally trades in the lower range around March and July. Generally, it is the best time to buy gold and marriage season is the best time to sell God.

2. Below 11,000, Gold is a safe investment but above 15,000- it is only for traders but not for investors.

Future of Gold:
When stock markets are in down turn in 2002, Gold was at Rs 5,400 per 10 gram. Don't forget that Gold traded below 9,000 per 10 gram till 2007 means you might have got routine returns from Gold investment. But investors who made investments in gold in mid-2007 are now making 70% returns in just 20 months. But I don't know what will happen to gold investors who bought it at above 15,000 but they remain in losses even after 3 years. Why? Gold will recede to 11,000 levels once equities make comeback. What happened to crude oil will repeat in case of gold also. Don't forget that Gold is not even an essential commodity. But Gold is a less volatile investment.

Examples:

1. Crude oil prices moved to $147 per barrel and Goldman Sachs people gave $200 per barrel target. It is now trading below the fundamental price at $35 per barrel.

2. Sensex moved to 21,000 and analysts and analysts gave 30,000 target. It is now trading at 9,000 levels.

3. Real Estate prices reached astronomical levels in 2007 but people bought land as if there will be no land available for purchase in future.

Interesting analysis from Zaverat:

If you invested 10,000 in various investments in the early 1999, following are the yields by 2004.

1. Fixed Deposit: 13,794.

2. PPF: 16,025

3. Gold: 15,064

4. BSE Sensex: 20,769. Equities saw the worst bear market in this time zone but gave good returns. 10,000 invested in Sensex is still 10,000 by 2002 but 20,000 by 2004.

Gold may deceive investors for some more time but investors should ask themselves some basic investment questions before making fresh investments.

1. "What is the fundamental value of the investment whether it is a share, real estate or commodities like gold?"

2. Whether the price already included the good news or not?

3. Why analysts are giving bullish estimates? Is there any truth?

4. Are there any better value based investment opportunities?

5. What are the historical moments of that investment?

6. Are we late in joining the party?

7. What is the margin of safety at current price?

My estimate on Gold:

I don't know what will happen to the Gold in the next few days due to these "Herd investments". But Gold will trade below 12,000 levels even after 3 years. What it means that you will not get a single rupee from Gold investments at current valuations if you are a long term investor. If you are a trader, enjoy the mania. Young investors should allocate 5-10% of your portfolio to Gold and buy at reasonable prices.

Article on Gold From 4Ps:

4Ps magazine published an article on "How to plan investments for 2009-10?". Magazine published articles on various investment options like Stocks, Commodities, Gold, Real Estate and Currency.

Highlights of the article:

Warren Buffett: Gold is the most useless commoditiy.

Stat: Rs 100 invested in Gold in 1979 is Rs 400 in 2009.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Gold's fate linked to dollar movement - The Hindu

Courtsey: G.Chandrasekhar, The Hindu

Mumbai, Dec 21 Even 2008 draws to a close, it is becoming increasingly clear that all commodities market participants - traders, investors and others – will remember the year for the extraordinary price performance, gyrations and volatility.

Commodity prices - be they of energy, metals or agriculture - not only hit multi-year record highs at one time, but they also plunged to great depths in a matter of weeks, if not days, precipitating a crisis.

Quite contrary to the first two quarters, in the last quarter, producers, consumers, traders and investors faced daunting challenges in the wake of sharply declining demand, rising inventory and collapsing prices.

Speculators exited the market in a hurry, removing a considerable amount of speculative froth that had developed in many commodities during the bull-run.

What started as global slowdown degenerated into a recession, at least in industrial economies such as the US and the Eurozone. Financial and economic conditions have turned grim. Currency fluctuations, especially that of the dollar, impacted market prices.

There is a widespread expectation that notwithstanding continuing recessionary conditions, commodity prices may largely be bottoming out. From the current levels, further downside risk to prices - crude, base metals, agriculture - seems to be limited. The crisis of confidence continues and may stay for some time.

However, when the process of economic recovery begins, hopefully in the third quarter of 2009 as a result of a series of bailout and stimulus packages, investor confidence may return to the market. Until then of course one must reckon with volatility.

There is also the strong possibility that sizeable output cuts that have been made in crude, steel, copper, aluminium and others will store problems for the future and begin to create a supply bottleneck when demand returns.

However, for the time being cash is still king and poor demand outlook remains the top of market concerns.

Gold
With the dollar rapidly weakening against the euro last week, gold prices got a boost and decisively moved above $800 an ounce. Physical demand at lower levels amid less volatile conditions generated support.

On Friday, in the London spot market gold PM Fix was at $835.75/oz, down from the previous days $855.25/oz. Silver declined too to $10.61/oz (AM Fix) from $11.29/oz the previous days.

Going forward, the yellow metal will be clearly influenced by the strength or weakness of the greenback. If the dollar should weaken further, it should provide a strong base for the metal to move higher. However, foreign exchange experts are of the opinion that currency movements in the next few weeks may cushion gold’s upside.

Interestingly, as the prices ruled above $800/oz, many investors exited their long positions on the Comex. No wonder, net fund length is near the lows of June 2007.
According to technical analysts, gold’s uptrend is erratic. It may be tough for the metal to breach $880 levels. The market is holding above short-term support of $829.
Below $829 would warn of a deeper pullback towards $782, though even in this scenario the choppy uptrend from October lows is likely to remain dominant force. The medium term view is largely neutral within $700-930.

Base metals
After sliding to fresh lows, base metals prices rallied on news that the US government will give an emergency loan of $17 billion to the US car manufacturers. Other wise, it was terrible week for base metals, with the exception of aluminium and zinc which ended the week higher. Lead prices fell by over 16 per cent week-on-week and tin fell by over 10 per cent.

Outlook for the base metals complex over 2-3 quarters into next year is grim with recessionary conditions and lack of demand growth the main theme. Construction sector and automobile sector, two important metals consuming sectors are facing serious downturn in demand. Inventories are rising. Many producers have responded quickly with output cuts.

Copper is the metal with the largest downside potential from current levels. Copper prices are is still above production costs and miners are still making money. So, there could be further cost-related cutbacks, experts assert.

On the other hand, aluminium, nickel and zinc prices have all fallen very close to weighted average production costs, experts point out, adding copper could dip near to this level at $2,100 a tonne.

Notwithstanding short-term weakness, the longer term outlook for base metals appears positive. This is because not only is output being cut, new investments are being put on hold. This will squeeze supplies when demand returns to the market. There will be supply constraints with concomitant impact on market prices.

Crude
Despite announcement of OPEC production cut and drastic decisions in the US monetary policy, crude prices dipped below the psychological $40 a barrel. Demand side concerns have been top of the markets mind. There are as yet no signs of demand revival. The financial crisis and growth concerns may continue for longer time than imagined earlier.

Experts, however, believe, from the current levels, the downside risk to crude prices is limited. Indeed, they are talking about the possibility of over-tightening of the market in the medium term. The supply performance of non-OPEC sources is being closely watched.