Leading Indicators
Release Time: 8:30 ET around the first few business days of the month for two months prior.
The Leading Indicators report is largely a composite of prior indicators such as new orders, jobless claims, money supply, average workweek, building permits, and stock prices. Because the report is highly predictable it is less likely to move the market dramatically.
The Federal Reserve watches leading indicators to aid decision making policy on interest rates.
Housing Starts and Building Permits
Importance: Moderate.
Volatility: Moderate.
Published by: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce
Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 16th of the month.
Coverage: Prior Month.
Housing Starts/Building Permits is a leading indicator of economic activity.
Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
Housing Starts Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Little Impact
Housing Starts Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Little Impact
Housing Starts and Building Permits
Importance: Moderate.
Volatility: Moderate.
Published by: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce
Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 16th of the month.
Coverage: Prior Month.
Housing Starts/Building Permits is a leading indicator of economic activity.
Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
Housing Starts Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Little Impact
Housing Starts Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Little Impact
Initial Claims
Source: The Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor.
Release: 8:30 ET each Thursday. Data is for week ended prior Saturday.
Initial jobless claims reflects the number of claims filed for state unempolyment benefits in the previous week. Increases in claims potential reflect slowing job growth, and decreases reflect accellerating growth in the job market. Due to the volatility of the number, many analysts look at a four week moving average. Look for a move of at least 30K in claims to indicate a significant change in job growth.
Nonfarm Payrolls
Importance: Highest.
Published by: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
Release: First Friday of the month at 8:30 ET for the prior month.
The Non Farm Payrolls release - the change in non farm employment from the establishment data - is the most closely followed economic statistic for the stock and bond markets. The numbers that make up this part of the Employment Report use payroll records - furnishing the most concrete evidence of whether the US is creating jobs.
It is important to note that the change in Non Farm Payrolls includes government jobs - so for a clearer picture of the situation in the private business sector, government positions need to be factored out.
The Employment Report
Importance: Highest.
Published by: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
Frequency: Monthly.
Release Time: First Friday of the month at 8:30 ET
Coverage: Prior Month.
Prior to the Employment Report we have only received the Auto Sales and Purchasing Managers Index and analysts have relatively little information to use in forecasting the direction of the economy. The monthly Employment Report is the most timely and broad indicator of economic activity and overall economic health. It provides a wealth of data on almost all sectors of the economy. The report is made up of two separate reports which are the results of two separate surveys.
Firstly, the Household Survey covers roughly 60,000 households and 120,000 people and tells us the unemployment rate. For the purposes of this survey, a person is considered unemployed if they do not have a job and are actively seeking employment.
Secondly, the Establishment or Payroll Survey covers 375,000 businesses, producing the nonfarm payrolls, average workweek, and average hourly earnings figures. Being larger and more comprehensive, the establishment survey is more closely watched. Payrolls are broken down into sectors including manufacturing, mining, construction, services, and government. The manufacturing sector is closely followed as it often leads the business cycle. A person is considered employed if they are on a firms payroll for any part of the pay period that includes the survey week. Federal government employment is an exception, being measured at the end of each month.
The average workweek is an important determinant of such monthly indicators as industrial production and personal income. Average workweek also reflects labor market conditions. A rising workweek early in the business cycle may indicate that employers are preparing to boost their payrolls, while late in the cycle a rising workweek may suggest that employers are having difficulty finding employees. Average earnings are used to gauge potential inflation. Broadly speaking, the employment report helps to forecast many other indicators. For example, a weak Employment Report can suggest a disappointing Retail Sales Report.
Market Reaction:
Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
Payroll Employment Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Dollar Up
Unemployment Rate Up Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Dollar Down
Payroll Employment Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Dollar Down
Unemployment Rate Down Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Dollar Up
Auto and Truck Sales
Importance: Medium.
Source: Individual auto manufacturers, seasonal factors by the Commerce Department.
Volatility: Moderate.
Release: Date varies by auto maker from the first business day to the third business day of the month. Data is for month prior.
The Auto and Truck Sales data measures the monthly sales of all domestically produced vehicles. These sales comprise approximately 25% of total retail sales. The demand for autos and trucks is interest rate sensitive and a leading indicator of consumer demand.
Market Reaction:
Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
Auto Sales Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Dollar Up
Auto Sales Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Dollar Down
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
PMI measures how well the manufacturing sector is doing. PMI's index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries, and employment.
Released By: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) - Formerly the National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAPM) the first business day of the month, 10:00am EST. The markets usually react as follows:
Fixed Income:
NAPM up = Bond Market down NAPM down = Bond Market up
Equities:
NAPM up = Stock Market up NAPM down = Stock Market down
Dollar:
NAPM up = Dollar up NAPM down = Dollar down
Release Time: 8:30 ET around the first few business days of the month for two months prior.
The Leading Indicators report is largely a composite of prior indicators such as new orders, jobless claims, money supply, average workweek, building permits, and stock prices. Because the report is highly predictable it is less likely to move the market dramatically.
The Federal Reserve watches leading indicators to aid decision making policy on interest rates.
Housing Starts and Building Permits
Importance: Moderate.
Volatility: Moderate.
Published by: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce
Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 16th of the month.
Coverage: Prior Month.
Housing Starts/Building Permits is a leading indicator of economic activity.
Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
Housing Starts Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Little Impact
Housing Starts Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Little Impact
Housing Starts and Building Permits
Importance: Moderate.
Volatility: Moderate.
Published by: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce
Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 16th of the month.
Coverage: Prior Month.
Housing Starts/Building Permits is a leading indicator of economic activity.
Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
Housing Starts Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Little Impact
Housing Starts Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Little Impact
Initial Claims
Source: The Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor.
Release: 8:30 ET each Thursday. Data is for week ended prior Saturday.
Initial jobless claims reflects the number of claims filed for state unempolyment benefits in the previous week. Increases in claims potential reflect slowing job growth, and decreases reflect accellerating growth in the job market. Due to the volatility of the number, many analysts look at a four week moving average. Look for a move of at least 30K in claims to indicate a significant change in job growth.
Nonfarm Payrolls
Importance: Highest.
Published by: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
Release: First Friday of the month at 8:30 ET for the prior month.
The Non Farm Payrolls release - the change in non farm employment from the establishment data - is the most closely followed economic statistic for the stock and bond markets. The numbers that make up this part of the Employment Report use payroll records - furnishing the most concrete evidence of whether the US is creating jobs.
It is important to note that the change in Non Farm Payrolls includes government jobs - so for a clearer picture of the situation in the private business sector, government positions need to be factored out.
The Employment Report
Importance: Highest.
Published by: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
Frequency: Monthly.
Release Time: First Friday of the month at 8:30 ET
Coverage: Prior Month.
Prior to the Employment Report we have only received the Auto Sales and Purchasing Managers Index and analysts have relatively little information to use in forecasting the direction of the economy. The monthly Employment Report is the most timely and broad indicator of economic activity and overall economic health. It provides a wealth of data on almost all sectors of the economy. The report is made up of two separate reports which are the results of two separate surveys.
Firstly, the Household Survey covers roughly 60,000 households and 120,000 people and tells us the unemployment rate. For the purposes of this survey, a person is considered unemployed if they do not have a job and are actively seeking employment.
Secondly, the Establishment or Payroll Survey covers 375,000 businesses, producing the nonfarm payrolls, average workweek, and average hourly earnings figures. Being larger and more comprehensive, the establishment survey is more closely watched. Payrolls are broken down into sectors including manufacturing, mining, construction, services, and government. The manufacturing sector is closely followed as it often leads the business cycle. A person is considered employed if they are on a firms payroll for any part of the pay period that includes the survey week. Federal government employment is an exception, being measured at the end of each month.
The average workweek is an important determinant of such monthly indicators as industrial production and personal income. Average workweek also reflects labor market conditions. A rising workweek early in the business cycle may indicate that employers are preparing to boost their payrolls, while late in the cycle a rising workweek may suggest that employers are having difficulty finding employees. Average earnings are used to gauge potential inflation. Broadly speaking, the employment report helps to forecast many other indicators. For example, a weak Employment Report can suggest a disappointing Retail Sales Report.
Market Reaction:
Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
Payroll Employment Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Dollar Up
Unemployment Rate Up Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Dollar Down
Payroll Employment Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Dollar Down
Unemployment Rate Down Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Dollar Up
Auto and Truck Sales
Importance: Medium.
Source: Individual auto manufacturers, seasonal factors by the Commerce Department.
Volatility: Moderate.
Release: Date varies by auto maker from the first business day to the third business day of the month. Data is for month prior.
The Auto and Truck Sales data measures the monthly sales of all domestically produced vehicles. These sales comprise approximately 25% of total retail sales. The demand for autos and trucks is interest rate sensitive and a leading indicator of consumer demand.
Market Reaction:
Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
Auto Sales Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Dollar Up
Auto Sales Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Dollar Down
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
PMI measures how well the manufacturing sector is doing. PMI's index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries, and employment.
Released By: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) - Formerly the National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAPM) the first business day of the month, 10:00am EST. The markets usually react as follows:
Fixed Income:
NAPM up = Bond Market down NAPM down = Bond Market up
Equities:
NAPM up = Stock Market up NAPM down = Stock Market down
Dollar:
NAPM up = Dollar up NAPM down = Dollar down
Industrial Production
Importance: Moderate
Volatility: Low
Source: Federal Reserve
Release Time: 9:15 ET around the 15th of the month.
Coverage: Prior Month.
The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Report describe what is going on in the manufacturing sector. These figures are not difficult to predict, and therefore have a low impact on the market.
Market Reaction:
Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
Industrial Production Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Little Impact
Capacity Utilization Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Little Impact
Industrial Production Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Little Impact
Capacity Utilization Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Little Impact
Personal Income and Consumption
Importance: High.
Source: The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce.
Release Time: 8:30 ET the fourth week of each month (data for the month prior).
Volatility: Medium.
The Commerce Department releases the Personal Income and Consumption figures the fourth week of each month, the day after GDP figures are published, using data from the previous month. Personal income is used to guage future consumer demand. The largest component of Personal income is wages and salaries. Other categories include rental income, government subsidy payments, interest income, and dividend income. A component of this figure covers personal consumption expenditures or PCE. PCE is comprised of three categories: durables, nondurables, and services.
Market Reaction:
Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
Personal Income Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Dollar Up
Consumption Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Dollar Up
Personal Income Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Dollar Down
Consumption Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Dollar Down
Retail Sales
Importance: High.
Volatility: High.
Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce
Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 13th of the month.
Coverage: Prior Month.
Retail Sales can be a major market mover, and can be subject to significant revisions. This report measures the strength or weakness of consumer spending, using the total receipts of retail stores.
Market Reaction:
Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
Retail Sales Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Light Impact
Retail Sales Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Light Impact
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - MCSI
The MCSI,conducted by the University of Michigan, is a valuable guide to changes in consumer attitudes that may influence spending behavior. The preliminary data is released on the tenth (except on weekends) of each month. A final report for the prior month is released on the first of the month.
EIA Inventory Reports
Each Wednesday the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a branch of the Department of Energy (DOE) releases inventory reports outlining activity in the energy sector at 10:30 AM EST.
The reports summarize weekly energy supplies and consumer consumption rates. The EIA petroleum inventory reports influence the price of crude oil and the energy market as a whole.
Importance: Moderate
Volatility: Low
Source: Federal Reserve
Release Time: 9:15 ET around the 15th of the month.
Coverage: Prior Month.
The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Report describe what is going on in the manufacturing sector. These figures are not difficult to predict, and therefore have a low impact on the market.
Market Reaction:
Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
Industrial Production Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Little Impact
Capacity Utilization Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Little Impact
Industrial Production Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Little Impact
Capacity Utilization Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Little Impact
Personal Income and Consumption
Importance: High.
Source: The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce.
Release Time: 8:30 ET the fourth week of each month (data for the month prior).
Volatility: Medium.
The Commerce Department releases the Personal Income and Consumption figures the fourth week of each month, the day after GDP figures are published, using data from the previous month. Personal income is used to guage future consumer demand. The largest component of Personal income is wages and salaries. Other categories include rental income, government subsidy payments, interest income, and dividend income. A component of this figure covers personal consumption expenditures or PCE. PCE is comprised of three categories: durables, nondurables, and services.
Market Reaction:
Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
Personal Income Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Dollar Up
Consumption Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Dollar Up
Personal Income Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Dollar Down
Consumption Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Dollar Down
Retail Sales
Importance: High.
Volatility: High.
Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce
Release Time: 8:30 ET around the 13th of the month.
Coverage: Prior Month.
Retail Sales can be a major market mover, and can be subject to significant revisions. This report measures the strength or weakness of consumer spending, using the total receipts of retail stores.
Market Reaction:
Event Fixed Income Equities Dollar
Retail Sales Up Bond Market Down Stock Market Up Light Impact
Retail Sales Down Bond Market Up Stock Market Down Light Impact
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - MCSI
The MCSI,conducted by the University of Michigan, is a valuable guide to changes in consumer attitudes that may influence spending behavior. The preliminary data is released on the tenth (except on weekends) of each month. A final report for the prior month is released on the first of the month.
EIA Inventory Reports
Each Wednesday the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a branch of the Department of Energy (DOE) releases inventory reports outlining activity in the energy sector at 10:30 AM EST.
The reports summarize weekly energy supplies and consumer consumption rates. The EIA petroleum inventory reports influence the price of crude oil and the energy market as a whole.
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