Demand-supply gap seen at 55,000 tonnes
Kochi, Nov. 5 World pepper production is projected to be lower in 2008 at 2,62,400 tonnes as against 2,72,040 tonnes in 2007 and 2,89,230 tonnes in 2006 following weak crop in India, Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam.
According to the International Pepper Community, there could also be a fall in the carry forward stock which is projected at 61,719 tonnes in 2008 as against 73,404 tonnes in 2007 and 88,384 tonnes the previous year.
Total exports during the current year is estimated at 2,01,700 tonnes as against 2,45,741 tonnes last year while the projection for 2008 has been put at 1,90,800 tonnes. It is against an estimated demand of 2,45,000 tonnes and hence, there could be a gap of around 55,000
tonnes between demand and supply next year.
Though the Indian production has been projected at 50,000 tonnes by the IPC, according to farmer groups it is likely to be around 45,000 tonnes. They attributed the decline to continuous rains in the Madikeri region of Karnataka resulting in severe berry drop. A major planter and agriculture scientist, Dr Jacob Thomas, told Business Line on Thursday that he anticipated a decline of 20-30 per cent in output of the current crop which is expected to be harvested in
December.
He said there were very few pure pepper plantations. Pepper is mainly grown as an intercrop in the coffee estates. Therefore, it is under tree shades without any chances of getting sun light. "The berry drop in these plantations has been severe," he said. However, he ruled out delay in harvesting given the current favourable weather conditions as the berries require sunlight for a fortnight for maturing.
Karnataka normally produces 20,000 – 22,000 tonnes of black pepper annually and because of the berry drop it is likely to be in the range of 15,000 – 16,500 tonnes.
According to farmer sources in Kerala's Wayanad and Idukki districts, the main growing areas in the State, there could be marginal decline because of heavy rains this year. Output in Kerala, they claimed, could be around 25,000 tonnes, while the Tamil Nadu production is estimated at 5,000 tonnes. Thus, the total output of the current crop might hover around 46,500 tonnes, they claimed.
Besides, according to Dr Jacob Thomas, there could be an estimated stock of 4,000 tonnes in Karnataka as the major growers are holding back their produce anticipating the prices to cross Rs 150 a kg in November. "There won't be a distress sale this year because of good coffee prices apart from writing off of coffee loans by the Karnataka Government," he said.
Trading sources estimates put the output for 2008 at 40,000–45, 000 tonnes while the IPC estimates placed it at this year's level of 50,000 tonnes.
The domestic consumption in India for the current year is estimated at 55,000 tonnes while for 2008 it has shown a drop of 10,000 tonnes to 45,000 tonnes, probably anticipating an increase in prices and consequent consumer resistance.
According to market sources, the current situation is favourable for more imports of pepper. Availability of lower grade pepper in other origins at low prices as against high domestic price due to tight supply, appreciation of rupee against dollar and availability of overseas advances at low rates of interest have placed importers in the country at advantageous position, they said.
In the world scenario, Brazilian output in 2008 is projected at 33,000 tonnes as against 36,000 tonnes in 2007 while Indonesian production is at 20,000 tonnes compared to 25,000 tonnes this year.
Vietnam production is also projected to be less by 10,000 tonnes at 80,000 tonnes from 90,000 tonnes in 2007. In 2006 Vietnam produced one-lakh tonne of pepper.
However, Malaysian production is likely to be at 23,000 tonnes as against 20,000 tonnes this year while that of Sri Lanka is projected to be marginally up at 14,900 tonnes compared to 14,640 in 2007.
Courtsey:Business Line
Kochi, Nov. 5 World pepper production is projected to be lower in 2008 at 2,62,400 tonnes as against 2,72,040 tonnes in 2007 and 2,89,230 tonnes in 2006 following weak crop in India, Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam.
According to the International Pepper Community, there could also be a fall in the carry forward stock which is projected at 61,719 tonnes in 2008 as against 73,404 tonnes in 2007 and 88,384 tonnes the previous year.
Total exports during the current year is estimated at 2,01,700 tonnes as against 2,45,741 tonnes last year while the projection for 2008 has been put at 1,90,800 tonnes. It is against an estimated demand of 2,45,000 tonnes and hence, there could be a gap of around 55,000
tonnes between demand and supply next year.
Though the Indian production has been projected at 50,000 tonnes by the IPC, according to farmer groups it is likely to be around 45,000 tonnes. They attributed the decline to continuous rains in the Madikeri region of Karnataka resulting in severe berry drop. A major planter and agriculture scientist, Dr Jacob Thomas, told Business Line on Thursday that he anticipated a decline of 20-30 per cent in output of the current crop which is expected to be harvested in
December.
He said there were very few pure pepper plantations. Pepper is mainly grown as an intercrop in the coffee estates. Therefore, it is under tree shades without any chances of getting sun light. "The berry drop in these plantations has been severe," he said. However, he ruled out delay in harvesting given the current favourable weather conditions as the berries require sunlight for a fortnight for maturing.
Karnataka normally produces 20,000 – 22,000 tonnes of black pepper annually and because of the berry drop it is likely to be in the range of 15,000 – 16,500 tonnes.
According to farmer sources in Kerala's Wayanad and Idukki districts, the main growing areas in the State, there could be marginal decline because of heavy rains this year. Output in Kerala, they claimed, could be around 25,000 tonnes, while the Tamil Nadu production is estimated at 5,000 tonnes. Thus, the total output of the current crop might hover around 46,500 tonnes, they claimed.
Besides, according to Dr Jacob Thomas, there could be an estimated stock of 4,000 tonnes in Karnataka as the major growers are holding back their produce anticipating the prices to cross Rs 150 a kg in November. "There won't be a distress sale this year because of good coffee prices apart from writing off of coffee loans by the Karnataka Government," he said.
Trading sources estimates put the output for 2008 at 40,000–45, 000 tonnes while the IPC estimates placed it at this year's level of 50,000 tonnes.
The domestic consumption in India for the current year is estimated at 55,000 tonnes while for 2008 it has shown a drop of 10,000 tonnes to 45,000 tonnes, probably anticipating an increase in prices and consequent consumer resistance.
According to market sources, the current situation is favourable for more imports of pepper. Availability of lower grade pepper in other origins at low prices as against high domestic price due to tight supply, appreciation of rupee against dollar and availability of overseas advances at low rates of interest have placed importers in the country at advantageous position, they said.
In the world scenario, Brazilian output in 2008 is projected at 33,000 tonnes as against 36,000 tonnes in 2007 while Indonesian production is at 20,000 tonnes compared to 25,000 tonnes this year.
Vietnam production is also projected to be less by 10,000 tonnes at 80,000 tonnes from 90,000 tonnes in 2007. In 2006 Vietnam produced one-lakh tonne of pepper.
However, Malaysian production is likely to be at 23,000 tonnes as against 20,000 tonnes this year while that of Sri Lanka is projected to be marginally up at 14,900 tonnes compared to 14,640 in 2007.
Courtsey:Business Line
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